91 Q UA RT E R _ 0 2 _ 2 0 2 6 - - - - - - - - - China’s investment footprint extends beyond Europe, too. In fact, Chinese players are set to become the biggest investors in emerging econ omies around the globe. In Morocco and Vietnam, they have announced battery projects. In Malay sia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, they have announced large EV-assembly projects. In total, emerging economies attracted about $38 billion annually since 2022, of which China contrib uted the largest share at around 40 percent. Japanese and South Korean players collectively made up another 30 percent—geared primarily to emerging Asian economies, especially India and Indonesia. Finally, the United States stands out both as the largest recipient of announced FDI and one draw ing from more geopolitically aligned partners as it reduces its exposure to China. About $35 billion have headed to North American shores, and about half of that has come from leading Japanese and South Korean players in EV assembly and batter ies, with the remainder mostly coming from Europe. Leading Chinese companies made up less than 10 percent of the total. While all of these projects are poised to change the geography of the industry, some FDI announcements face a bumpy road. Recent shifts in US trade and energy policy have affected planned investments in Mexico and Canada, placing several projects on hold. Fur thermore, ongoing trade restrictions with China pose supply chain challenges for advanced Asian battery makers establishing US facilities, because Chinese suppliers provide key inputs. Elsewhere, questions remain about whether other countries can compete effectively with China’s advantages in battery-pro duction scale and cost efficiency. THE FDI SHAKE-UP PROMISES TO MOLD FUTURE TRADE AND INDUSTRY Announcements suggest that green field FDI is emerging as an engine for future-shaping industries in many spots around the globe. These announcements have grown much faster than total capital investment, creating the potential to boost global capacity and to expand the world wide footprint of these industries. In the case of data centers and EV batteries, announced FDI projects could add roughly as much capacity as existed in 2022. For leading-edge semi conductors, FDI projects could add about 60 percent to 2022 global capacity (Exhibit 5). The impact could be many times higher outside the core hubs where these industries are con centrated today. For data centers, leading-edge semiconductors, and EV batteries, FDI-driven proj ects could account for the majority of total capacity growth outside core hubs up to 2030. It remains uncertain how many of these announced investments will be fully realized, but the direction of travel is clear. As of early 2026, the pipeline was progressing in a healthy way: More than 60 percent of the projects announced since 2022 in all of these industries were already live or well underway, and in particular some of the very largest semiconductor and gigafactories were already online. - - - An expanded version of this report is available on McKinsey.com - - - - - - - NAVIGATING FDI SIGNALS AND SHIFTS IN A HIGH-STAKES ENVIRONMENT The stakes have rarely been higher for decision mak ers. Heightened geopolitical tensions, fast growth of a new set of future-shaping industries, and evolving industrial policies are fundamentally changing the environment for cross-border investment. Compa nies need to move fast enough to retain a stake in the industries of the future while maintaining flex ibility, engage in ever-growing deal sizes without breaking the bank, and navigate a fresh set of incen tives brought about by new “nonmarket” factors. In this rapidly shifting environment, announced FDI can offer strategic foresight. In weighing their next moves, executives and policymakers can take note of the clues that FDI yields— both cross-industry patterns and data at the granular deal level. Anticipating and Cultivating the Ecosystem of New Projects Where might industry demand for the proverbial shovels spike next? Consider semiconductor manufac turing. Announcements of major projects in locations like Arizona or Leixlip, Ireland, signal opportu nities for adjacent companies such as toolmakers and chemical suppli ers. It continues through the value