93 Q UA RT E R _ 0 2 _ 2 0 2 6 - - - - - - - as steel manufacturing are grappling with overca pacity, and some observers are warning of future EV manufacturing overcapacity. Many companies already track their direct competitors. For example, think of incumbent automakers tracking manufacturing expansion plans of upstarts, or consider hyperscalers analyzing where competitors are expanding their data center footprint. But beyond gaining a competitive edge, this map is also important for potential partners. For instance, renewable- energy developers in emerging markets can identify global firms actively seeking local col laborations, while European automakers may spot battery manufacturers that haven’t yet entered their region, representing possible joint-venture opportunities. For financial-sector players, mapping which companies are investing and where may reveal a range of opportunities. Examples include new assets needing project finance and derisking, fresh prospects for banks and insurers, new sources for commodities traders, and even broader asset-class, boom-and-slowdown dynamics for principal inves tors. Finally, policymakers can also leverage these maps to pinpoint companies that may be scouting for a new location in their region, potentially lead ing to economic partnerships. A handful of large FDI projects could shape the fortunes of smaller economies. Anticipating Which Economies Will See New Waves of Growth FDI announcements provide a powerful early signal about which economies may become more competitive directly from the investments themselves and indirectly via potential spill overs that stimulate upstream or downstream development. In the most pronounced examples, a handful of large FDI projects could shape the fortunes of smaller economies. For example, large energy deals in Guyana and Mauritania, if successfully realized, could fundamentally alter their economic prospects by serving as anchor projects for their economies. Of course, such success is not guaranteed, and FDI signals need to be calibrated with important preconditions to catalyze growth. FDI can also signal change even in larger econo mies. For example, Saudi Arabia and Thailand have recently attracted projects across a diversified set of industries, from data centers to electronics and automotive. This inflow of FDI could spur significant new activity among local suppliers of components, tools, and materials. Similarly, economies drawing substantial power generation investments, such as Brazil or Morocco, could experience downstream competitiveness gains through cheaper and more reliable energy supplies. Foreign direct investment has a long history of identifying, nurturing, and propelling leading-edge industries. The global firms of today are already responding to geopolitical changes and technolog ical advancements, potentially shifting future trade patterns. Greenfield FDI announcements serve as a bellwether of where global economic ties may form or fray and how the geometry of global trade may evolve. Business leaders and policymakers can incorporate such insight to better navigate an uncertain time. » Tiago Devesa is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and is based in McKinsey’s Lisbon office; Jeongmin Seong is a partner at MGI and is based in the Tokyo office; Olivia White is a director of MGI and is based in the Bay Area office; Nick Leung is a director of MGI and is based in the Hong Kong office; Michael Birshan is a member of the MGI Council and a senior partner in the London office, where Masud Ally is a knowledge expert; Jan Mischke is a partner at MGI and is based in the Zurich office; and Camillo Lamanna is a fellow at MGI and is based in the Perth office.